October 18, 2016

Throat clearing

My written voice is a separate part of my consciousness. It slumbers for months at a stretch, roused by emotional outbursts every few months. Others are driven to drink, I am driven to write. I have the impulse to write about the follies of others, how clear things are to me and

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October 13, 2016

Low-cost passive ETFs and magical thinking

Reduced activity, low fees and tax efficiency are reasons given for why passive investing is low-cost for the investor. This logic is wrong. Those are reasons why passive investing is low-cost for the fund management company. The reason those cost-savings get passed to the invest

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July 1, 2016

Comparing SP500 and housing leverage

According to http://realestate.wharton.upenn.edu/research/papers/full/493.pdf The quarterly standard deviation of unleveraged housing returns is 3.4 percent, which is 6.8 percent annualized. With a 20% downpayment, that's a 34% stdev. The SP500 has a standard deviation of around

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May 13, 2016

How does Germany compare to the USA in terms of median income?

Article with the surprising claim that the median income in Germany is lower than that in most US states, when PPP adjusted - https://mises.org/blog/if-sweden-and-germany-became-us-states-they-would-be-among-poorest-states Conclusion: I would say the weak points that bear more lo

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March 8, 2016

The Grammar of Graphics

R's ggplot2 has the most elegant graph API that I know. This article by Hadley Wickham himself is a great introduction to some of the ideas underlying The Grammar of Graphics that he implemented. I think it contains a lot of great ideas for API design. http://vita.had.co.nz/paper

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March 5, 2016

Passive investing is cheap, but not free

Excellent article by Matt Levine Passive investing is a way to make different fund managers compete with each other by forcing them to offer the same product. That competition lowers management fees for the customer. Unfortunately, the predictability of passive funds also makes t

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February 18, 2016

Was the 2015-2016 flu vaccine spot-on?

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season-2015-2016.htm The 2015-2016 trivalent flu vaccine protected against: an A/California/7/2009 (H1N1)pdm09-like virus an A/Switzerland/9715293/2013 (H3N2)-like virus a B/Phuket/3073/2013-like virus. (This is a B/Yamagata lineage virus)

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December 18, 2015

Do Critical Topics always bring Abrasive Conversations?

The first rule of Improvisional Comedy the Yes, And rule, compels one to accept what the other person has created ("Yes") and then add something to it ("And") This is something that a skilled conversationist is good at. It poses trouble for the discussion of critical analyses how

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December 16, 2015

Where does Taiwanese air pollution come from?

Conclusion: The pollution now (December) is from China, the pollution in November was locally generated. Earlier this year, there was a bout of posts about whether the air pollution in Taiwan came from China. The air is apparently pretty bad right now, and this time I think it's

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December 14, 2015

What parts of Deep Learning are modern?

Conclusion: outside of a very brief period in which pre-training with Unsupervised Learning was shown to be helpful, Deep Learning has largely been about hardware brute force, and learning how to use brute force to solve problems. Terms I need to learn more about Pattern Deformat

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December 12, 2015

Deep Learning with Small Data

I looked into the topic a bit more, and found this exchange, which I think makes sense to me. The essence of the argument is that because Google etc. have a lot of data, they develop techniques that can make use of that data. However, if you do not have a lot of data, there are o

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